For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for January 15
The most important event for today is the Brexit parliamentary vote. The vote is scheduled to start at 21:00 MT time. According to analysts, Theresa May is going to face a defeat of her delayed Brexit deal as at least 70 members of her Conservative party has joined Parliament opposition in voting. If the deal is rejected, the British pound will struggle. You need to keep an eye on the Brexit headlines today, as they may bring additional volatility to the pound and the cable in particular.
Also in today’s focus, there is a release of the monthly producer price index at 15:30 MT. The indicator is going to be released despite the government shutdown. According to forecasts, the indicator will decline by 0.1%. If the actual data is higher, the USD will be supported.
Another important event for the greenback today is the speech by the FOMC member Esther George at 20:00 MT time. The dovish comments by the Fed members during the last two weeks pulled the USD down. If the current speech is hawkish, it will affect the dollar positively.
As for the euro traders, they are awaiting the first speech of the year by the ECB president Mario Draghi at 17:00 MT time. His speech may contain comments on the current economic situation in Europe amid the political risks and global issues. If he sounds supportive for the euro, the currency will get a positive momentum. Otherwise, the bears will take over and drive the European currency down.
Yesterday’s news on Brexit resulted in mixed trading and formed a doji candlestick on the daily chart. The resistance at 1.2899 lies close to the 100-day MA, which shows the strength of this level. On H4, we can see that the pair has been going up since the market opened. Negative news on Brexit may increase the bearish pressure. If bears manage to break the lower border of the upward channel, they will pull the cable to the support at 1.2853. The next support lies at 1.2819. In case of the positive updates, the pair will continue to strengthen and will stick above the 1.2899 level. In that case, the next resistance is placed at 1.2926.
As for EUR/USD, the pair has been trading with low volatility since the beginning of the week. Today’s release of PPI may drive the pair down to test the support at 1.1454 on the H4 chart. If this level is broken, the next support lies at 1.1423. However, the hawkish statement by the ECB president may support the EUR bulls. If it happens, the pair will stick above the 1.1477 level. The next resistance is placed at 1.1494.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
It seems like most of the assets have joined Black Friday's sell-off with global indices, risky currencies, and commodities going down.
Although the last week was intense, this one may be more dynamic and volatile. After the FOMC meeting and controversial decisions from the Bank of England, we saw a historical pound decrease, and the gold plunge. And there’s even more for you.
After the US CPI last week came out above the forecast, traders started expecting a 75-basis point rate hike…
In this video, we will talk about the potential change of a trend in the euro, another stock rally amid a global downtrend, gold prospects, and news that shakes the world right now. It’ll be a helpful video you don’t want to miss.