For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for January 17
As we can see, the economic calendar today won’t provide us with a lot of trading opportunities.
The only event with the highest impact expected is the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central banks’ representatives in Tokyo. The meeting will last for two days. The comments during this event may bring additional volatility to the Forex market.
Let’s not forget about the top headlines for today. Yesterday, Theresa May survived the non-confidence vote, which tried to oust her government. She has already announced to start the talks with the EU as soon as possible. That is why the news on the Brexit progress will affect the British pound.
What else has been driving the market? The updates on the trade negotiations between the US and China resulted in risk aversion during the Asian trading session. The potential delay of the outcome of the trade talks due to the government shutdown has pulled the risky assets down.
Let’s look at the key levels of GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
Despite the uncertainties, Theresa May’s victory yesterday moved the GBP up to the resistance at 1.2899. As for today’s progress, we can see that the comments by the opposition members have negatively affected the British pound. On H4, we can see that the pair has bounced from the 1.2840 level yesterday. However, the cable could not hold its gains and started to fall. Up to now, the pair is testing the ground below the 1.2840 level, moving towards the 1.2826 level. If that level is broken, the next support lies at 1.2803. The positive news on Brexit will push the pair to test the resistance at 1.2899. If this level is broken, the next resistance lies at 1.2963.
As for AUD/USD, the pair has been falling since the beginning of the week. News on the trade talks pulled the pair even lower. However, Parabolic SAR keeps showing the uptrend for the pair, which may signal a further recovery. On H4, the pair has been targeting the support at 0.7149. If the risk-off sentiment increases, this support might be broken. The next support is placed at 0.7136. If the positive news on trade negotiations is released, the pair will rise to the resistance at 0.7185. The next resistance is at 0.7208.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
It seems like most of the assets have joined Black Friday's sell-off with global indices, risky currencies, and commodities going down.
Although the last week was intense, this one may be more dynamic and volatile. After the FOMC meeting and controversial decisions from the Bank of England, we saw a historical pound decrease, and the gold plunge. And there’s even more for you.
After the US CPI last week came out above the forecast, traders started expecting a 75-basis point rate hike…
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