Trading plan for January 4

Forex market started 2019 with extremely high volatility. With the majority of traders on holidays, the amount of liquidity was low. This brought on big swings in the exchange rates. The main theme was risk aversion: traders were worried about the health of global economy and especially China. Apple caused fear among investors as it cut its revenue forecast for the first time in nearly 12 years blaming weaker iPhone sales in China.

Investors’ rush to safety caused a ‘flash crash”. As a result, there was a sharp jump in the safe-haven JPY. USD/JPY tested levels below 105.00 on Thursday, January 3. Cross currency pairs like NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY experienced heavy losses. The change in the market positioning for the JPY led to a crash in the GBP. GBP/USD slid as low as to 1.2418 before returning above 1.25.      

Trading will continue to be volatile on Friday, January 4. There are several important events in the economic calendar. China will release Caixin Services PMI, Britain will publish Services PMI, and the euro area will publish flash CPI for December. During the US trading session, there will be releases of Canadian and American labor market figures. US Nonfarm Payrolls 9nFP) will be out at 15:30 MT time. According to the consensus forecast, American economy added 178K jobs last month after gaining 155K jobs in November. The growth of Average Hourly Earnings is expected to accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The head of the US central bank, Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 17:15 MT time. If news from America doesn’t disappoint, USD/JPY will be able to recover to 108.50/109.30.    


CPI May Hit 10%, What to Do?
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For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.

How Powell's hawkish speech will affect the USD and gold?
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The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?

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Although the last week was intense, this one may be more dynamic and volatile. After the FOMC meeting and controversial decisions from the Bank of England, we saw a historical pound decrease, and the gold plunge. And there’s even more for you.

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