For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for March 11
The day will be highlighted by the releases of retail sales and core retail sales for the US at 14:30 MT time. According to analysts, the level of core retail sales will advance by 0.4%, while the headline indicator will likely remain at the same level. Higher figures will push the USD up.
Also, let’s not forget about Brexit this week. The news that all of the EU offers were rejected and expectations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s defeat in the Parliament tomorrow affect the British pound negatively. Any positive news on the possible extension of the Brexit deadline will support the GBP.
Now let’s look at the charts.
At first, let’s look at the daily chart of EUR/USD. On Friday, the pair moved up to the weekly pivot at 1.1261 on the disappointing release of the non-farm payrolls. If today’s releases of retail sales are positive, the pair will fall again towards the weekly pivot support at 1.1141. Otherwise, bulls will manage to test the resistance at 1.1261 and try to break it. From the technical side, parabolic SAR shows a downward movement for the pair and ADX shows bears dominating the market.
On H4, the pair bounced from the support at 1.1222 and started to go up. If the releases for the US are be appreciated by the market, EUR/USD will reverse to the support at 1.1222 and fall to the next support at 1.1184. Otherwise, the pair will rise to the resistance at the weekly pivot at 1.1261. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.1283.
Now, let’s consider GBP/USD. The pair fell below the weekly pivot at 1.3085 on the daily chart towards the 200-day SMA. The news ahead of the significant vote tomorrow will drive the pair today. Positive news will push it back to the 1.3030 level and weekly pivot, negative data will pull it below the 50-day SMA to the weekly pivot support at 1.2916. From the technical side, Parabolic SAR shows a downward movement and ADX demonstrates the strength of bears.
On H4, we can see that the failed negotiations between Theresa May and the EU during the weekend resulted in a gap-down. The pair is trying to recover now. Positive news will move it to the resistance at 1.3050. The next key level is placed at 1.3085. Otherwise, if the USD is strong and news is negative, the pair will fall below the 1.2969 level to the next support at 1.2895. If we look at the indicators, we see that RSI is leaving the oversold zone, which may provide a short-term buying opportunity.
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