For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for March 15
If we look at the economic calendar, we can see that there are a lot of events with a low impact on the market. That is why it’s recommended to trade on the market sentiment. At first, we need to pay attention to the news regarding trade talks between the US and China. Reportedly, the summit between the US and Chinese presidents will be postponed until April. However, according to the comments by Chinese premier, the negotiations keep going and the sides share more benefits than disagreements. Any positive comments on the progress will push the risky assets higher.
Now let’s look at the charts.
At first, let’s look at the daily chart of NZD/USD. Lower-than-expected level of industrial production for China and the news on the delay of the final trade deal pulled the pair to the 50-day SMA yesterday. Today, the pair has been gaining since the beginning of the trading session on the upbeat comments by Chinese Premier. Risk-on sentiment in the market will push the pair higher to the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.6875. The next resistance lies at 0.69. Otherwise, if more uncertainties in trade talks are released, the kiwi will fall below the weekly pivot level at 0.6839 to the support at 0.6792. If we look at indicators, Parabolic SAR shows an upward movement for the pair. Here, ADX shows the weakening strength of bulls.
Now let’s look at the H4. The pair bounced from the 50-period SMA yesterday and started to move up. At the moment, it is testing the resistance at 0.6858. If bulls are strong, they will break this level and move up to the next resistance at the weekly pivot level at 0.6875. Otherwise, the kiwi will fall to the weekly pivot level at 0.6839. The next support lies at 0.6829. (+ 0.6810 level)
Now let’s consider the daily chart of AUD/USD. The pair has been trading sideways during the last three days with the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.7098 and the support at 0.7050. If the aussie manages to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 0.7156 (100-day SMA). Risk aversion will pull the pair below the 0.7050 level to the next support at 0.6993. From the indicator’s side, parabolic SAR shows a downward movement for the pair and ADX shows bear’s strength is weakening.
On the H4, the pair is currently testing the 100-period SMA near the 0.7091 level. If the risk sentiment is on, the next resistance will lie at 0.7098. If it’s broken the next levels to watch are placed at 0.7107 and 0.7121. If bulls are unable to push the price higher, the pair will reverse to the support at 0.7077 and, if it’s broken, target the next level at 0.7065.
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