For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for May 16
On Monday, the US dollar managed to gain a foothold and rebounded after a 3-day fall. Retail sales and core retail sales’ data were weaker than the forecast, however, it did not affect the greenback. The US dollar index reached the psychological level of 93. As a result, other currencies depreciated against USD.
European data was mixed but the further rise of the greenback make the euro plunge. EUR/USD broke the pivot point at 1.19 and the next support at 1.1850. If the pair closes below this level, traders should expect the further fall to 1.1750. What can become a support for the single currency? On Wednesday, Final CPI’s data will be out at 12:00 MT time. The forecast is similar to the previous data. If the actual one is greater than the forecast, the euro may gain a foothold. Moreover, the President of the European Central Bank will give a speech at 15:00 MT time. Any clues on the future tapering of the quantitative easing will prevent the euro from the significant plunge. If Wednesday’s data are encouraging, the euro will be able to turn around to the pivot point at 1.19.
Average Earning Index’s data pulled the pound down. The figure was weaker than expected. As a result, the GBP/USD pair broke the support at 1.3550 and is moving further. The next support is at 1.3450. No significant data for the pound will be released on Wednesday, so, the pound has risks to break the support and fall further. Moreover, Ichimoku cloud signals a wider decline of the pound in the near future.
It is worth to say a few words about the Turkish lira. It is suffering a great depreciation against the US dollar after comments of the Turkish President. Mr. Erdogan declared that a lower interest rate leads to a lower inflation. The Turkish currency reached a record drop, now the US dollar/Turkish lira pair is trading near 4.50.
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