On December the 3rd Canada reported a 6% unemployment rate, while the expectations were at a 6.6% level. Less than expected unemployment rate is always hawkish news for the national currency.
Trading plan for May 23
It seems like the rally of the greenback has ended. On Monday, the US dollar index tested levels near $94, however, closed below $93.50. Tuesday’s attempts to recover were not successful as well. Up to now, the US dollar index is trading near $93.40. If the index closes below $93.50, there are risks of the further fall of the greenback. On Wednesday, Fed’s meeting minutes will be released. Whether a report is more hawkish, the greenback has chances to recover. Otherwise, other currencies will get a chance for an appreciation against USD.
The single currency couldn’t recover. It seemed like the euro would break the resistance at 1.1840, however, EUR/USD rebounded. Up to now, the pair returned to Monday’s levels near 1.1780. On Wednesday, a lot of significant data for the euro will be released. Forecasts are not encouraging, however, if the actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the euro will have chances to return to 1.1840. However, the trend line will put additional pressure on the pair. As a result, whether the data are weaker, there is a risk of the fall to 1.1680.
A significant rise of oil highly supports the Canadian dollar. On Tuesday, USD/CAD broke the support at 1.2780. The next support lies at 1.27 (100-day MA). However, no important data are anticipated to be released during this week. The loonie can only rely on the weak greenback and strong oil. Moreover, on the weekly chart, 200-week MA is an additional support for the pair. If it is able to break it, there will be more chances for the loonie. Otherwise, USD/CAD will return to levels above 1.2780.
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