Forecast for May 8

The US dollar is recovering after a slight fall that happened at the end of the last week. On Monday, the greenback reached highs of the end of 2017. Tomorrow the Chair of the Fed will give a speech on the monetary policy and its influence on the global financial conditions at 10:15 MT time. Traders will take into consideration clues the Chairman will give.

Other currencies started to depreciate against USD after it moved up.

Let’s start with the Australian dollar. Since Wednesday, May 2, bulls managed to take trading under control and prevent the Australian dollar/US dollar pair from the further fall. However, the current week has not started positively for the aussie. The Australian dollar could not stick above the pivot point at 0.7530 and fell. No important data was released on Monday, but on Tuesday, traders will pay attention to retail sales and annual budget release. Although the retail sales’ forecast is weak, if the actual data is greater than that, the aussie will have chances to recover. So the aussie will move to the resistance at 0.7530. However, as the forecast is weak, odds of the pullback are not high. Now the pair is moving to the support at 0.7480. If it breaks it, the next level lies at 0.7420.

The New Zealand dollar is continuing to consolidate within 0.6980-0.7050. On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to inflation expectations at 6 MT time. If the actual data is higher than the previous one, it will give a positive sign for the upward movement of the kiwi. The pair will need to break the pivot point at 0.7030. However, the Ichimoku cloud signals the continuation of the downward movement. So if the data is not positive, the kiwi will continue its movement to the bottom line of the consolidation at 0.6980.

As the US dollar is rising, the USD/JPY pair is rising as well. On Friday, the USD/JPY pair reached the 100-day MA and rebounded. The pair is trading near the pivot point at 109.27. If it is able to close above this level, odds of the movement up will increase. So the next resistance is at 109.88.

Thank you for your attention!