For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Trading plan for November 16
The economic calendar is not full of the events which can affect the market significantly today. At first, Mario Draghi will present his speech during the Frankfurt European Banking Congress at 10:30 in the morning MT time. We expect the fresh hints on the monetary policy of the Eurozone and the comments on the end of the quantitative easing policy in December. However, he may sound cautious amid the current political uncertainties.
Now let's look at the key currency pairs.
The US dollar index is trading in a range between the strong resistance at 97.21 and the support at 96.6, as the news on the future US-China trade talks do not contain certainty. If the risk-off sentiment across the markets increases, The US dollar index can stick above 97.21. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at 96.6 towards the next support at 96.35.
On H4, EUR/USD is rising ahead of the Draghi speech. The successful test of a 100-day MA at 1.1361 can drive the pair towards the resistance at 1.1383 if Draghi's comments are hawkish. The dovish comments, as well as the strong US dollar, will pull EUR/USD downwards to the psychological level at 1.13. If it's crossed, the bearish pressure increases and the pair can fall towards the support at 1.1265.
If the USD is strong, it can also affect GBP/USD. The pair can fall further towards the support at 1.2677. The weak USD, as well as positive news on Brexit, can help the British pound to stick above the resistance at 1.2817.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
It seems like most of the assets have joined Black Friday's sell-off with global indices, risky currencies, and commodities going down.
Although the last week was intense, this one may be more dynamic and volatile. After the FOMC meeting and controversial decisions from the Bank of England, we saw a historical pound decrease, and the gold plunge. And there’s even more for you.
After the US CPI last week came out above the forecast, traders started expecting a 75-basis point rate hike…
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