US dollar: forecast for Oct. 30 - Nov. 3

The US dollar had a very positive week. One of the main bullish drivers of the greenback was the weakening of the euro after the ECB meeting.

The US president Donald Trump is expected to soon announce his candidate for the position of the next Fed’s chief. According to the media, Trump is choosing between Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor. Both are positive for the USD, Taylor more so, and market players just want to finally learn who will lead the US central bank. As another bullish factor for the USD, I can mention hopes that a tax reform is getting closer.

There will be a lot of important news releases in America in the upcoming days. Don’t miss core PCE price index on Monday – this is the Federal Reserve’s main inflation measure. Other releases to watch include personal spending on Monday, Chicago PMI and CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, as well as ADP employment report, ISM manufacturing PMI and the meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise rates only in December, but its statement may contain some hints on its further plans. Finally, nonfarm payrolls on Friday will make trading extremely volatile.    

The USD index (DXY) formed an inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily chart. The neckline at 94.00 is acting as support ahead of 93.85 (100-day MA). Resistance is at 95.25, 95.85 and 96.00.  

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