The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: April 9-13
The US dollar rose during the most part of last week but suffered on Friday as a report showed that in March the US economy created the fewest jobs in 6 months.
Trade tensions between the United States and China come on and off. All in all, such uncertainty creates a negative environment for the US dollar. At the same time, it’s not completely bad as traders hope that the world’s two largest economies will ultimately reach a compromise.
Technical positions of the American currency don’t look strong. The US dollar index rose to the area of 90 last week. There’s a “Harami” pattern on the daily chart and a candle with long upper shadow on the weekly timeframe.
EUR/USD managed to find support just above 1.2200. This level is saving the euro from a deeper decline that could take it to 1.2150 and 1.2085. Bullish engulfing on the daily chart allows some recovery. Resistance is at 1.2345 and 1.4210.
British pound is driven up by the optimism about the Brexit deal and the expectations that the Bank of England will soon raise the interest rate. GBP/USD will likely make another attempt to test 1.4190 and the 200-week MA at 1.4240. This is a serious resistance.
USD/JPY had a good week but ran into resistance around 107.50. There’s a heavy bearish Ichimoku Cloud above the pair on the daily chart, so the way up won’t be easy. Decline below 106.60 will open the way down to 105.90.
For USD/CAD, there’s a “Head and Shoulders” pattern on the daily chart. As long the pair is trading below the neckline at 1.2820, we’ll target levels at 1.27 and 1.26.
There will be several important events for the USD – PPI on Tuesday, CPI and the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and consumer sentiment on Friday. We’ll hear from other major central banks as well. The RBA Governor and the ECB president will speak on Wednesday and governors of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will make an address on Thursday.
Last week the speech of the Fed's Chair Jerome Powell led to big swings in the market. The USD jumped, while EURUSD and GBPUSD revisited lows. Gold and US500 also got under pressure.
The gold has made a perfect retest, but will it hold against the rising dollar? Also, the Jackson Hole Symposium and Jerome Powell's speech may become critical for most assets, and finally, more economic releases and earnings reports await you.
Although the last week was intense, this one may be more dynamic and volatile. After the FOMC meeting and controversial decisions from the Bank of England, we saw a historical pound decrease, and the gold plunge. And there’s even more for you.
After the US CPI last week came out above the forecast, traders started expecting a 75-basis point rate hike…
In this video, we will talk about the potential change of a trend in the euro, another stock rally amid a global downtrend, gold prospects, and news that shakes the world right now. It’ll be a helpful video you don’t want to miss.