The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: August 20-24
The week won’t be notable with a big number of economic events.
On Tuesday the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will give a speech. The same day, the central bank will release the meeting minutes. As a result, traders will get many clues on the current economic situation to forecast the further direction of the Australian dollar.
On Wednesday, traders will have opportunity to trade on the retail sales data of New Zealand and Canada. Later that day, the Federal Reserve will publish meeting minutes, however, the market doesn’t anticipate anything new.
On Friday, traders can use American core durable goods orders data to trade the EUR/USD pair.
Jackson Hole Symposium will take place from Thursday to Saturday. It’s a big event where representatives of the financial markets and central banks meet. Although the meetings are closed to the press, officials will talk with reporters. Such comments make create a market volatility. Be careful.
It’s time to look at the technical side.
Last week, the US dollar index reached the highs of the end of June 2017. But it didn’t get enough support to stay there. The week won’t support the USD with a big amount of the economic data. Therefore, there are risks of the further fall. The support lies at 96. If trade tensions escalate, the US dollar index will return to 97.
The euro is trying to recover after the significant fall. If the USD is weaker, EUR/USD will be able to break above 1.1435 and move up. The next resistance is at 1.1630. Otherwise, the pair will return to the support at 1.13 and after we can anticipate a great plunge to 1.1115.
The Canadian dollar had been highly volatile recently because of the moves in the oil market and USD. USD/CAD is anticipated to trade within the 1.3050-1.3180 channel. If the USD is stronger, the pair will be able to break above the trendline at 1.3180. Otherwise, the Canadian dollar will have chances to recover. The support is at 1.3050.
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