Weekly Forex Outlook: July 16-20

The US dollar started playing the role of a safe haven amid the increased trade tensions between the United States and China. In addition, American inflation data allows expecting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 4 times this year. If the USD index rises above 95.00, the next resistance level will be at 96.00. Support is 94.15.

USD/JPY tested levels above the long-term resistance line. Resistance is at 113.25 (200-week MA) and 113.75 (December highs). Support is 111.00.

EUR/USD turned down from 1.18. The euro is moving towards the lower edge of the trading range at 1.1520. If this support is breached, the pair will make another big leg down.

British pound had rough times. Prime Minister Theresa May outlined her Brexit proposals. She suggested a “soft Brexit” deal which would allow Britain to keep the closest possible trade ties with the European Union. Yet, Brexit secretary David Davis and foreign secretary Boris Johnson resigned as they were against this plan. The position of Theresa May looks shaky now. GBP/USD was limited on the upside by the declining 50-day MA and met resistance at 1.3350. Support is at 1.3075 (100-week MA) and 1.3040 (October lows).

Concerns about trade wars didn’t keep the Bank of Canada from raising its interest rate to 1.5%. Yet, the Canadian dollar failed to hold gains on the news as traders doubt that Canadian central bank will continue raising interest rates in the future. USD/CAD consolidated after its fall late in June. Support is located at 1.3130. Resistance is at 1.3280 and 1.3330.

The new week will start with the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The outcome of the summit will influence global risk sentiment. Chinese statistics and US retail sales will come out on Monday. New Zealand’s CPI, Australian monetary policy minutes, and British average earnings will be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday, CPI will set the way for the GBP and US building permits will bring some volatility to the USD. The highlights on Thursday will be Australian employment figures and British retail sales. Friday will offer an opportunity to trade the CAD on the news: Canada will publish CPI and retail sales.

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