For a long time, traders considered American Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) the most important release in the market. However, the situation has changed. Now US CPI moves financial markets.
Weekly Forex Outlook: July 2-6
The USD index was at multi-month highs but once again failed to stay above 95.00. Support lies at 93.20. Everyone keeps discussing trade wars, although concerns have eased for now. This helped USD/JPY to rise to resistance line since May. A break above 110.90 is needed for the pair to rise to 111.30 and 111.80.
The first week of July contains many important economic events. The Reserve Bank of Australian will meet on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve will release June meeting minutes on Thursday. Friday will be marked with American labor market data – nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average earnings.
Traders do not expect any action from the RBA but its statement will be very important. Optimistic comments and risk-on sentiment may bring AUD/USD to 0.7480 and 0.7520.
EUR/USD found support between 1.1550 and 1.15. It’s the third time this area limits the decline, although bears keep returning to it. The euro got a boost on Friday as European leaders reached an agreement on migration. Despite the progress, there are still serious disagreements among the eurozone countries. As a result, the positive effect on the euro may be only temporary. The overall setup on the daily chart remains negative. Resistance is at 1.1720, 1.1780 and 1.1820.
USD/CAD formed a double top and broke below support at 1.3260. The Canadian dollar strengthened versus the US currency as oil rose to 3-1/2-year high. The target is at 1.3150. Support is at 0.7350 and 0.7300.
The higher prices seen today are generally related to the pandemic, that’s no doubt. US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades putting the Biden administration on the defensive and increasing prospects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Jerome Powell says Fed will discuss speeding up bond-buying taper at the December meeting. What does it mean for markets?
It seems like most of the assets have joined Black Friday's sell-off with global indices, risky currencies, and commodities going down.
Gold is about to break the most significant support. The US dollar index keeps gaining momentum. However, the situation might change this week, and we might see a tiny correction. Investors might return to risk-on and push the US stock market indices and cryptocurrencies to the upside. These and more trade ideas are in our new weekly video! Do not miss it!
This week is likely to be pivotal for many assets, including gold, USD, and several stocks. However, we need to be focused and react fast to the ever-changing environment to get the most from it.
This week, the majors will be affected by the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, NFP, the BOE Meeting, and more events.