The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: June 25-29
This is the weekly Forex report by FBS.
Let’s start with a look at the economic calendar for the upcoming days. As usual, there will be a lot of data for the USD. Consumer confidence figures on Tuesday, core durable goods orders on Wednesday, and final GDP data on Thursday will be important for the USD.
Last week the pound was supported by optimistic comments on the future rate hike. However, the Brexit deal still puts pressure on it. A speech of the Bank of England Governor and a Central Bank’s financial stability report on Wednesday, current account data on Friday will determine the further direction of the GBP.
Some words about the New Zealand dollar. On Thursday, the Reserve Bank will announce the interest rate. Although a rate hike is anticipated only in the third quarter of 2019, the Central Bank may give some clues on its monetary policy. Hawkish comments will support the weak New Zealand dollar. The Canadian dollar needs support in times of the unstable oil market. On Wednesday, the central bank’s Governor will give a speech.
Positive clues on the monetary policy will encourage the Canadian dollar. On Friday, GDP data and central bank’s business outlook surveys will be released. It’s time to look at the technical side.
Last week the US dollar index was trading near the psychological level at $95, but couldn’t break it. So far the index isn’t at high levels, but positive economic data may push it up. The euro is trying to recover after a significant fall caused by a central bank’s cautious approach to rate hikes. The US-European Union trade tensions are intensifying.
Positive news on trade will push EUR/USD above 1.17. Otherwise, the pair will trade near 1.16.
USD/CAD is trading at highs of June 2017. Some encouraging Canadian data will pull the pair below 1.3270. Otherwise, USD/CAD will set new records. The resistance is at 1.3380.
In times of trade wars, the Japanese yen has chances to strengthen. USD/JPY has broken below the 50 Fibo level at 109.70 and is moving down. If the pair is able to break the support at 109.20, the further fall to 108.50 is anticipated. Otherwise, the pair will trade above 110. Thank you for your attention!
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