Weekly Forex Outlook: Mar. 12-16

US jobs growth was higher than expected in February, but wage inflation disappointed. As a result, traders doubt that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 4 times this year. More likely there will be just 3 rate hikes. The main conclusion is that for now there are few reasons to buy the USD.

Another important result of the last week was an improvement in risk sentiment. It happened as concerns about global trade wars and North Korea declined.

These factors, as well as the optimistic Bank of Japan, helped USD/JPY to recover to 107.00. The pair closed above resistance line since the start of January, so it has a chance to visit 108.00.

EUR/USD failed to rise above 1.2450 and was rejected to 1.23 area as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that the bank is in no hurry to reduce the monetary stimulus. This will make the euro’s life more difficult.

GBP/USD is inside a descending triangle. More active trading will start when the pound gets out of it: wither above 1.3900 or below 1.3750. There’s no progress in Brexit talks yet, although British economic figures were good.

Canadian dollar got a positive boost. USD/CAD has a good chance to slide to 1.2750/1.2700.

Economic calendar

This week the US will publish several important data blocks.

The most important event for the pound will be the spring statement of Finance Minister Philip Hammond on Tuesday. It will contain important info about the UK economy.

We’ll hear from central bank leaders – Bank of Canada’s governor will speak on Tuesday, while the ECB president – on Wednesday.

All in all, there are not so many big events this week, so the market will be driven by primarily by the risk appetite.


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