The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: March 4-8
We will start with significant events that will shake markets this week.
As usual, the beginning of the month is highlighted with central banks’ meetings. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate. Analysts predict no changes to the rate but traders will take into consideration the mood of the central bank. Recently, top world banks forecast the weakness of the Australian currency in the long-term period. If the Governor sounds hawkish, the Australian dollar will gain momentum. In the case of the dovish tone, the currency will suffer. Also on Tuesday, we will pay attention to Mr. Carney’s speech. The pound needs encouraging comments.
On Wednesday, another central bank will announce its interest rate. And it’s the Bank of Canada. The rate is anticipated to remain unchanged, but the statement will determine the direction of the Canadian currency. Ahead of the central bank’s meeting don’t forget to check trade balance data. During the Asian session, the Australian GDP growth and comments by the governor of the Australian central bank may affect the domestic currency.
Thursday will bring an important event to the European market. The European central bank will host the press conference after the announcement of the interest rate. No changes to the rate but clues on the monetary policy will drive the euro. More data for the Australian currency this week. Retail Sales figure will be out during the Asian session.
On Friday, catch your chance to trade on the American jobs data! Non-farm payrolls, the favorite indicator of traders, will shake all markets that relate to the US dollar. Be ready to trade on the high volatility. Also on Friday, Canadian jobs figures will be delivered. Be careful trading the USD/CAD pair.
What about key levels?
On the daily chart of EUR/USD, the pair keeps suffering since the middle of the last week. Up to now, bears have been trying to pull the pair below the middle pivot at 1.1369. As soon as the pair is closed below it, risks of the further decline will increase. Supports lie at 1.1319, 1.1277 and 1.1227. However, traders should rememeber that two important events for the European currency are scheduled for this week. Firstly, the mood of the central bank will either provoke a further decline or will encourage the domestic currency. Secondly, the release of the American jobs data will cause high volatility. If the euro gains momentum, bulls will try to push the pair above 1.1369 (50- and 100-day MAs are a strong barrier to cross). Next resistances will lie at 1.1411, 1.1462 and 1.15.
Australian dollar loses positions.
It seems like the Australian currency can’t gain momentum. On Monday, the Australian dollar/US dollar pair opened below the pivot level that is the negative signal for the pair. Indicators also signal a further weakness of the Australian dollar, Key supports are at 0.7030, 0.6985, and 0.69. Although, the main trend is negative, chances for recovery still exist. The pair needs to break above the middle pivot level at 0.7114. The next resistance is at 0.7159 (50-day MA lies there, so the resitance is anticipated to be strong). A break of it will boost the pair to 0.7244.
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