Weekly Forex Outlook: May 7-11

The US dollar is near 2018 highs versus a basket of currencies. These are also the highest levels of the greenback since the end of 2017.

Bleak US jobs and wages data didn’t discourage the market’s belief in the strength of the US economy.  Traders still believe that American central bank will raise interest rates 2 or 3 times more these year – that is much more than other central banks will do. As a result, investors keep buying the USD.

The market’s view of the euro area’s economy, on the contrary, became less positive. As a result, EUR/USD fell below 1.20. A return above this level is necessary to give bulls hope for a recovery to 1.21 and 1.2230. Decline below the 50-week MA just above 1.19 will open the way down to 1.1865 and 1.1770.

The British pound has suffered losses as well. Weak economic data from Britain, problems with Brexit negotiations and the rise of the US dollar were the main factors which brought GBP/USD down. The pair is testing levels below 200-day MA. Resistance levels are at 1.36 and 1.3650. Below 1.3540 the target will be at 1.34 (50-week MA).

The main risk to a bullish USD scenario in the near-term is the fate of Iran’s nuclear deal, as the US President Donald Trump said that he will decide by May 12 whether the US stays in or pulls out of it.

It seems that the US dollar will have the hardest time versus the yen. USD/JPY failed to close above an important resistance level of 109.50 last week. There’s also resistance at 110.15 (200-day MA). There’s a possibility of a pullback to 108.80 and 108.00.

Economic calendar

The main events of this week include the meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the bank of England on Thursday. Both regulators are expected to keep policy unchanged. This will be the first meeting for the new RBNZ governor Adrian Orr, so traders will pay great attention to it.  

 Heads of the US and European central banks will speak on Tuesday and Friday respectively.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the US will release important producer and consumer inflation indexes. Finally, Friday will offer a chance to trade the CAD on the news as Canada will release the labor market figures.


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