The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: November 12-16
Let’s start with the economic calendar.
Average Earning Index figure will affect the GBP on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, traders will get important economic data for the Australian dollar, US dollar, and British pound. Wage Price Index will determine the strength of the Australian dollar. The direction of the USD and GBP will be determined by the inflation data.
On Thursday, again same currencies will be under pressure from economic releases. Jobs data will have an impact on the Australian dollar. Retail sales figures will be important for the British pound and US dollar.
For Friday, we have the inflation report from the Bank of England.
What about market moves?
The US dollar index is close to stick above the psychological level of 97. However, the pressure is high. If the economic data are strong, the index may get lucky to gain a foothold above 97. However, weak data will cause a repeated fall. The first important support lies at 95.55. A break below this level will signal a further plunge to 94.65.
Will GBP/USD break psychological highs?
The pair suffers to return to highs of the middle of October. The British pound needs positive comments on the Brexit deal and encouraging economic data as the European Union forecasts a further slowdown in the British economy. If the economic data are strong and there is a progress on the Brexit, the pair will be able to rise. The first significant resistance to break is at 1.3258. However, in case of more uncertainties, the pair will keep struggling. A break below 1.2922 will pull the pair further down. The next crucial support is at 1.2690.
Will the AUD strengthen the uptrend?
The uptrend of the Australian dollar/US dollar pair is still questionable. To confirm it, the pair needs to be above 0.73. If the Australian economic data are strong, the pair will be able to stick above this level and keep rising. However, if the USD is strong and the economic figures are weak, the pair will suffer. A break below 0.7183 will provoke a further fall. The next significant level is at 0.7049.
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