The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: November 19-23
Let’s start with the economic calendar.
On Tuesday, during the Asian session, we anticipate news for the Australian dollar and Japanese yen. Firstly, the central bank of Australia will explain its last rate decision. Then the governor of the Bank of Japan will give a speech. Hints on the economic conditions are highly expected.
Later that day, the Bank of England will deliver the inflation report.
If you want to trade the oil market, don’t forget to check the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC biggest oil producers.
On Wednesday, traders will get important economic data for the US dollar. Core Durable Goods Orders will determine the strength of the USD.
On Friday, we are looking for Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales data.
Let’s have a look at charts.
Last week, the US dollar index tested new highs at 97.50, however, as it was anticipated, it couldn’t stick there and rebounded. The index is weak, moreover, we don’t anticipate significant economic data. If there are no encouraging events, risks of the further fall will increase. Supports are at 95.88 and 95.44. If the economic data are supportive, the index will get a chance to strengthen. A break above 96.69 will bring the index to the strong resistance at 97.13. A break of this level will signal that the index may stick at last week’s highs.
Will USD/CAD keep the uptrend?
The pair has been trading within the short-term upward channel. To keep the uptrend, the USD should be strong. In this case, the pair will be able to stick above 1.3179 and break the resistance at 1.3230. The last strong resistance is at 1.3316. However, to the end of the week, we anticipate the important data for the Canadian dollar. If the actual figures are great, the pair may suffer. Supports are at 1.3135, 1.3093 and 1.3041.
Will the GBP gain a momentum?
GBP/USD has been trying to recover based on the weakness of the USD. If the USD is weaker, the pair will rise to the resistance at 1.3026. In case of the breakthrough, the pair will get a chance to reach highs of the beginning of October at 1.3175. The next important high is at 1.3224. If the USD is strong and there is more negative news on the Brexit deal, the pair may fall. An important support is at 1.2677. A break of this level will be dramatic for the pair.
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