The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: November 5-9
Let’s take a look at the economic calendar.
On Tuesday, traders will be able to trade the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting. It’s not a secret that the central bank will keep the interest rate on hold. However, it will present an outlook on the economic conditions and will deliver hints on the future monetary policy.
Also that day, we will get New Zealand jobs data.
Tuesday will be also an important day for the US dollar because of the American midterm elections that will make the USD highly volatile.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release the interest rate. The central bank isn’t anticipated to change the rate, but comments will affect the currency a lot.
A release of the US interest rate is planned for Thursday. The market worries about the cancelation of the rate hike. Traders need comments of the central bank to be sure in the December increase of the rate.
On Friday, traders will get a lot of British data. GDP, Manufacturing Production, and Prelim GDP figures will affect the GBP.
What about market moves?
Will the USD return to the August highs? Last week the US dollar index suffered a huge volatility. The index reached August highs but couldn’t stick there and plunged. Up to now, it has been trying to recover. If it gains a foothold above 96.35, we can anticipate a rise to August highs. In case of the negative events, the index will fall 95.72. The next support is at 95.16.
Will the AUD break the downtrend? At the end of the last week, the Australian dollar/ US dollar pair managed to break the upper boundary of the downward channel. If the USD is weak and the Australian central bank is optimistic, the pair will be able to stick above 0.72. The next resistance is at 0.7286. If the USD is strong, there are risks of the pullback to the downward channel.
Is the NZD strong enough?
The New Zealand dollar/ US dollar pair managed to stick above the upper boundary of the downward channel. However,a pressure is still high. If economic data are weak and the central bank is dovish the pair will fall below 0.6541. If the USD isn’t able to reach the August highs and the data are encouraging, the pair will break above 0.6719. The next resistance is at 0.6793.
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