Weekly Forex Outlook: September 10-14

Last week, the US dollar index presented mixed moves. Uncertainties around the NAFTA deal pulled the USD up, however, investors still have doubts about the policy of the Federal Reserve, that’s why the index couldn’t surge to the previous highs. Moreover, Mr. Trump kept silence about the new tariffs on China, that was negative for the USD. On Friday, encouraging jobs data supported the rise. Up to now, the index is still below the psychological level at 95.50.

The appreciation of the USD pulled the EUR/USD down. Moreover, Italy's budget plans stay the major concern for the eurozone as Italy has the second largest public debt among the Eurozone countries. Moreover, according to experts, the correlation between the European economy and emerging markets are increasing.

As a result, EUR/USD plunged below 1.1582. Up to now, the pair has been trying to recover. Key resistance levels are 1.1582 and 1.1632. If the USD is able to significantly increase, there are risks of the fall to 1.15 and 1.1452.

Last week the pound was affected by the Brexit news. As a result, GBP/USD was strongly volatile. At the end of the week, the pair formed a bearish shooting star candlestick. It may signal the bearish reversal. If Monday candlestick is bearish, risks of the fall will increase. Supports lie at 1.29 and 1.2790. If the pound gets support from the Brexit news and the economic data, it has chances to recover. Resistances are at 1.3033, 1.3151.

It’s time to look at the economic calendar.

On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the British average earnings index data.

Wednesday PPI data will affect the US dollar.

Thursday will be full of events. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce their interest rates. Although we don’t expect any changes, banks will give clues on the future monetary policy that will affect the currencies. Jobs data will determine the direction of the Australian dollar. The way of the USD will depend on the CPI data.

On Friday, the governor of the Bank of England will give a speech that will affect the pound. Later that day, traders of the US dollar will get retail sales data.


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