The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Forex Outlook: September 24-28
Let’s go through the main Forex topics that will offer you profit opportunities.
How serious are Brexit problems?
Last week ended with a big announcement from the UK Prime Minister Theresa May. She expressed her displeasure with the European leaders who rejected Britain’s Brexit proposal and said that the talks are at an impasse. The confrontation between Britain and the EU will likely continue this week. The risks of Brexit without a trade agreement increase. As a result, the GBP may suffer more.
GBP/USD formed a ‘Shooting star” candlestick on the weekly chart. The pair will remain under pressure until it stays below 1.3140. Support is at 1.3030, 1.2980, and 1.29. Above 1.3140, GBP/USD may recover to 1.3230 with the next resistance at 1.3385.
What to expect from the Federal Reserve?
The US central bank is expected to raise its interest rate on Wednesday. The increase is already priced in the USD value. The American currency will rise only if the Fed’s economic outlook is positive and Chair Powell hint at another rate hike in December.
EUR/USD keeps moving up. Last week it managed to overcome resistance at 1.1720 and now this level acts as support. Upside targets are at 1.1830 and 1.19.
Will traders stay optimistic?
So far, market players haven’t expressed much fear about the new wave of trade tensions between the United States and China. This week, the new American tariffs on Chinese goods came in effect and China refused to talk trade with the US. Oil prices will likely remain high as the world’s largest oil exporters refused to increase output. All in all, although the markets are fundamentally calm, investors can become more cautious ahead of the Fed’s meeting.
AUD/USD has resistance at 0.73. A break out of the downtrend will give it a chance to rise further to 0.7345 and 0.74. Otherwise, support is at 0.7245 and 0.7185. NZD/USD can get up to 0.6735 and 0.68. New Zealand’s central bank may acknowledge higher economic growth. This will be positive for the NZD.
Other important events to watch include US durable goods orders and final GDP growth on Thursday, British current account, euro area’s CPI, and Canadian GDP on Friday.
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