Weekly Forex Outlook:October 8-12

Does the USD have chances to stick above 95.50?

The US dollar index seems to resume its power. Moves of the last days make traders optimistic about the further rise of the USD. However, up to now, the index is near the psychological level of 95.60. If the USD is able to stick above it we can anticipate a further rise. The next resistance is at 96.85. However, if there is no support from news or economic data, there are risks of the fall below 94.95. The next support is at 94.45.

The Italy Budget issue keeps putting pressure on the euro. The Italian government has to send a draft budget to Brussels by Oct. 15. If there is negative news and USD is stronger, EUR/USD may break supports at 1.1446 and 1.1373. However, the weakness of the USD will support the pair. Resistances are at 1.1535 and 1.1607. 

Will the Brexit deal pull the pound down again? The GBP/USD pair managed to end the last week at good levels. The rise of the pound was caused by positive news on the Brexit deal. According to the weekend comments of the European Union representatives, the UK may hope for a free-trade deal. However, the UK has to submit a proposal on the Irish border issue by Wednesday. If there are clues on the progress in the issue, the pound will rise. Otherwise, there are risks of the return to lows of the previous week. Negative news on the Brexit deal will pull GBP/USD below 1.3051. Supports are at 1.2980 and 1.2849. In case of the positive news, the pair will be able to break above 1.3182. 

It’s time to look at the economic calendar.

This week won’t bring us a lot of economic events, however, it still will be a chance to trade.

On Wednesday, traders should pay attention to the British GDP and Manufacturing Production data. Later that day, there will be a release of the American PPI data.

On Thursday, traders will have a close look at American CPI and Core CPI figures.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank host meetings in Bali to discuss global economic development and finance. As a result, the week will be full of speech of the central banks’ representatives. Pay attention to their comments as they are anticipated to affect the market a lot.

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