The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Market Outlook: May 20-24
What currencies to consider this week.
On Tuesday, pay attention to the Australian monetary policy meeting minutes. Rumors about the possible rate cut have been circulating. If traders catch a cautious tone of the central bank, the Australian dollar will continue its dramatic fall.
Also, that day investors will pay attention to the British inflation report hearings. Hints on inflation and the economic outlook will represent the current economic situation in the country. Positive prospectives will drive the GBP.
On Wednesday, it’s worth considering retail sales data for kiwi and loonie. Greater actual releases will encourage a rise of currencies. Inflation data will represent conditions of the British economy. Higher levels will be good for the pound. Meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve will not shake the USD if only there are unexpected cloudy comments.
Thursday data will affect the European currency. The euro suffers to recover. Although last time the economic data for Germany and Italy were quite inspiring, it wasn’t enough. If this time the PMI readings outperform expectations, the euro will be boosted. Moreover, it will be the first day if European parliamentary elections. Elections will continue until May 25. Be up to date.
On Friday, don’t miss British retail sales release and American core durable goods orders.
Let’s move to the technical setups.
EUR is under pressure.
Last week, the pair had been suffering 5 days in a row. If bears manage to keep it below 1.1168, we can anticipate a return to previous lows in a range of 1.1127-1.0950. If bulls succeed to prevent a dramatic fall. EUR/USD needs to stay above 1.1127 to have chances for recovery.
GBP/USD is oversold.
The pair has been plunging for past 2 weeks. Indicators are signaling that the pair oversold. However, Brexit uncertainties don’t let bulls take control over the situation. The first support lies at 1.2702. A breakthrough will cause a plunge to 1.2577. GBP/USD needs to appear above 1.2787 to hope for an upward movement. The resistance is located at 1.2875. The next level is at 1.3025.
AUD/USD is targeting lows of December 2018.
Although the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged despite worries of the rate cut, the aussie suffers a lot. If the pair breaks below 0.6824, we can consider a further slide. As the pair is oversold, there are odds of the recovery. The pair should stick above 0.6962 to gain momentum.
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