The Federal Reserve speeds up its quantitative tightening, and this is certainly bullish news for the USD. At the same time, this is a negative factor for the American stocks, which have entered their seasonally worst month.
Weekly Market Outlook: May 6-10
What currencies to trade this week.
On Tuesday, we anticipate a release of the Australian interest rate. Mostly, analysts are quite sure about the rate ahead of the central bank’s meeting but not this time. Experts are divided on whether the Reserve Bank will cut the interest rate tomorrow or wait until after this month's federal election. What to do in such a situation? The market has already priced-in the rate cut. If the central bank shortens the rate, it will pull the Aussie down but not that much. If the rate is kept unchanged, the Australian dollar will be supported.
On Wednesday, there is a chance to trade on the comments of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This central bank won’t change the rate, but its comments will be highly important. In the case of the dovish tone, the kiwi will suffer. The optimistic mood of the bank will push the currency up.
On Thursday, trade balance figure will determine the direction of the Canadian dollar. As for the USD, the producer price index will affect it.
Many events on Friday are good for trading. GDP, Prelim GDP growth and Manufacturing production data will shake the British market. Jobs data will represent the health of the Canadian economy pushing the loonie either up or down. And the last but not least, American inflation level will weight on the USD.
Let’s move to the technical setups.
USD/CAD has been trying to resume the uptrend.
On the daily chart of USD/CAD, the pair has been trading near the first pivot resistance at 1.3479. As soon as this level is crossed, the next important resistance will lie at 1.3521 (the previous high). A break above it will resume the uptrend. A rise above 1.3541 will strengthen the bullish strength. The parabolic SAR also signals an upward movement. However, the rise may be limited. A fall towards 1.3428 will mean a correction. A breakthrough below this level will create risks of the further decline towards 1.3367 and 1.3315.
Has NZD/USD reached the bottom?
The pair keeps trading within the downtrend. However, the Parabolic SAR forming dots below the price that may be a good signal for the pair. Bulls need to push it above the middle pivot level at 0.6644. The next move above 0.6682 will end the downtrend. Until pair crosses these levels, there are risks of the slide. If the NZD/USD is below 0.6603, NZD/USD will keep falling. Supports are at 0.6565 and 0.6524.
Difficulties for the British pound.
GBP/USD managed to break above crucial levels to finish the downtrend. However, it seems like the pair is suffering to continue the upward movement. Parabolic SAR has been forming dots below the price that is a good sign. However, the stochastic oscillator is in the overbought area. If the pair falls below 1.3084, we can anticipate a further decline towards 1.2991 and 1.2870. However, positive Brexit news and economic data will support the pound. If bulls manage to keep GBP/USD above 1.3084, next levels to break will be located at 1.3174, 1.3263 and 1.3356.
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