AUDJPY Outlook: Range-Bound with Risk-Sensitive Triggers Ahead

Summary

• Bearish Signal at Resistance:
• AUDJPY rejected near 94.73, forming a bearish engulfing candle—a classic reversal sign suggesting short-term topping.
• Key Resistance Zone:
  • 94.00–94.73 → Price action faltered here, indicating intense selling pressure.
  • Break Above 94.73 → Opens the door toward 95.00 psychological level.
• Support Zone:
  • 93.00–93.50 → Includes Ichimoku Senkou Span A (93.51) and Tenkan-sen (93.39)—a critical zone to watch.
  • Below 93.00 → Exposes deeper downside toward 92.00.
• Momentum Check:
  • RSI is neutral (~50), and mixed signals across indicators reflect a range-bound, choppy environment.
  • Traders should watch for confirmation (breakout or breakdown) before positioning.

Fundamental Drivers

• Monetary Policy Divergence:
  • RBA remains relatively hawkish (rates ~3.8%–4.35%) amid sticky inflation.
  • BoJ is still cautious, though policy normalization talk is simmering; it could pause due to U.S. tariff uncertainty.
• Global Risk Sentiment:
  • Elevated risk appetite benefits AUD (a pro-cyclical currency).
  • Trade-war jitters and U.S. tariffs may reintroduce safe-haven flows into JPY, capping AUDJPY upside.

AUDJPY – H4 Timeframe

The price action on the 4-hour timeframe chart of AUDJPY recently broke above the previous high, followed almost immediately by a bearish retracement. Based on the Fibonacci retracement of the impulse move, the demand zone near the 76% mark has been highlighted and will serve as the primary area of interest for the bullish continuation. The demand zone and Fibonacci sentiment are supported by the confluence from the trendline support.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target- 94.781

Invalidation- 92.018

CONCLUSION

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