1. Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
Despite briefly dipping below $99K after U.S. strikes in Iran, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, reaffirming its role as a resilient but risk-sensitive asset. This price action continues to unfold within a descending channel, suggesting traders are cautiously rotating risk rather than exiting en masse.
2. USD Weakness & Institutional Demand
The U.S. dollar’s 10% decline YTD has strengthened Bitcoin’s macro appeal. Meanwhile, institutional inflows—highlighted by $132 billion in spot ETF allocations and continued treasury adoption by corporates—are helping anchor BTC near key psychological levels, keeping structural demand intact.
3. Technical Setup
- Support: $100,000 (channel bottom) → break risks drop to $92,000
- Resistance: $107,000 → break opens room toward $112,000–$115,000
- BTC remains range-bound, but narrowing volatility hints at an imminent breakout resolution.
Summary:
Bitcoin is consolidating above $100K, supported by institutional buying and dollar weakness. While geopolitical risks inject volatility, the broader structure favors range trading with bullish potential if $107K is broken. A drop below $100K would shift short-term sentiment bearish, with $92K as the next likely support zone.
Watch Next:
- U.S. PCE inflation data
- ETF inflow momentum
- Global geopolitical flashpoints affecting safe-haven demand
BTCUSD – H4 Timeframe
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The horizontal arrow on the chart above highlights the break below the previous low on the 4-hour timeframe chart of BTCUSD, setting off a bearish sentiment. The bullish retracement is expected to halt at the supply zone between the 76% and 88% Fibonacci retracement levels. The trendline resistance presents a confluence in favor of the bearish sentiment.
Direction: Bearish
Target- 98052.62
Invalidation- 108978.09
CONCLUSION
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