Summary
- Dow Futures: +0.84%, last at 38,649
- S&P 500 Futures: +0.9%, last at 5,313.25
- Nasdaq Futures: +1.0%, last at 18,426.00
- Monday Close:
- Dow: 39,894
- High/Low: 39,906 / 39,827
Fundamental Factors Affecting U.S. Markets
- Trump-Powell Rift Resurfaces
- Trump called Fed Chair Powell "Mr. Too Late" and "a major loser," urging immediate rate cuts.
- Tensions spiked after Powell warned about Trump's tariffs and advocated for a measured policy path.
- Rising political interference adds volatility and uncertainty to rate expectations.
- Fed Policy Outlook in Focus
- The market expects gradual cuts, but Trump pressure and tariff threats complicate the Fed's trajectory.
- Powell's independence likely remains intact, but investor sentiment is fragile amid political noise.
- Tesla Earnings Awaited
- Trade Policy Still a Wild Card
- Trump's erratic tariff announcements fuel risk-off moves and complicate inflation and growth forecasts.
- FX and equity markets remain sensitive to trade rhetoric.
Key Takeaway for Traders
- Short-term: U.S. index futures rebound after Monday's selloff, but political risk remains elevated.
- Medium-term: A continued rift between Trump and Powell could undermine Fed credibility, boost volatility, and shake the USD.
- Long-term: Trade tensions + political influence may weigh on U.S. growth and earnings, especially if Powell resists pressure to cut.
US100 – H4 Timeframe
Following the bullish break of structure on the 4-hour timeframe chart of US100 and the FVG created by the impulsive break, I expect a classic retest of the demand zone and a continuation of the bullish movement.
US100 – H2 Timeframe
The 2-hour timeframe chart of US100 adds a trendline support confluence to the demand zone highlighted. The expectation is for the price to rebound off the demand zone as it aims to create a higher high.
Analyst's Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target- 19245.64
Invalidation- 16401.21
CONCLUSION
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