1. Market Structure & Sentiment
The Nasdaq-100 has surged ~32% off the April lows, entering bull-market territory as it recently broke and closed above record highs (~22,190). DataTrek notes that the 50-day spike seems extreme, but the 100-day gain (~5.8%) remains in line with historical norms, suggesting this is recovery, not excess.
2. Key Drivers
- AI Leadership: Momentum in mega caps like Nvidia and Microsoft, alongside strong Q2 earnings, continues fueling tech dominance.
- Rate-cut optimism: Easing U.S. yields (10‑yr down ~31bps H1) and dovish Fed signals underpin equity valuations.
- Risk-on environment: Geopolitical relief (Israel–Iran ceasefire) and U.S.–China/UK trade progress have pushed global equities to record highs, benefiting tech .
3. Technical & Positioning Outlook
QQQ ETF (tracks Nasdaq‑100) recently cleared a bullish flag/inverse head‑and‑shoulders formation, with measured targets near $575–$586, and support zones at $524 and $494 on pullbacks. Momentum indicators suggest further upside, though short-term overbought signals warrant caution.
Summary
The Nasdaq‑100 remains bullish, driven by AI-led earnings, Fed rate-cut expectations, and improved risk sentiment. In the short term, the $575–$586 band offers a sensible upside target, while $524‑$494 provides solid support if a pullback occurs. Watch earnings, U.S. macro data (jobs, CPI), and trade headlines for triggers that may break this consolidation.
US100 H4 Timeframe
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On this US100 (Nasdaq-100) 4‑hour chart, we see price pulling back toward a support zone that aligns with the rising trendline and the moving averages. The plan is to wait for price to test that boxed demand area. If we spot a bullish confirmation there, we can look to buy and target a move back up to the previous high. The trade idea relies on the trendline and moving averages acting as dynamic support. The entry would be invalid if price breaks below the demand zone with strong bearish momentum.
Direction: Bullish
Target- 22836.70
Invalidation- 22374.36
CONCLUSION
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