EUR/USD: outlook for April 17-21

EUR/USD has been hovering around the support line from this year’s lows. The US dollar’s weakness let the pair return above 1.0600. The escalation of geopolitical tensions supports the euro as the funding currency. However, concerns about the outcome of French presidential election continued to limit the euro on the upside.

According to the polls, far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron will win the first election round on Sunday, April 23, and then confront each other in the run-off on May 7. If a pro-euro Macron wins the election, the euro will get a boost, but ahead of the vote, we expect the euro to underperform.

German economic sentiment strengthened, according to the data released in the past week, but the euro area’s industrial production contracted. Many European banks will be closed on April 17, the Easter Monday. In the European economic calendar pay attention to final CPI figures on Wednesday and, more importantly, the region’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. This latter block of data represents the most recent update on the euro area’s economic health.

Another dip below 1.0600 can bring EUR/USD to 1.0555 (61.8% Fibo of 2016-2017 advance). Further support is at 1.0520/00. Resistance levels are located at 1.0670 and 1.0770.

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Elizabeth Belugina