Brexit: masa hadapan GBP
Brexit selesai. Apa yang akan terjadi pada ekonomi UK dan pound? Ketahui di dalam artikel kami.
Super Thursday
2019-11-11 • Dikemaskini
On Thursday, February 8, the Bank of England will release a huge amount of data. BOE inflation report, MPC official bank rate votes, monetary policy summary and official bank rate will be delivered tomorrow at 14:00 MT time.
In the end of January Cable achieved its highest level since the Brexit vote. Sterling has jumped 4.5% this year against the US dollar. Such increase was supported by the optimism over Brexit talks and the UK prices growth.
However, now we can see the decline of the pound because Brexit still causes many problems and analysts still think that it will hurt Britain. So what will the central bank do in such situation?
Some predictions
Despite the fact that Britain’s economy is recovering after the financial crisis, showing good figures, analysts suppose that the BOE will hold interest rates unchanged because figures are still not incredible compared to other strong economies and there are doubts about the Brexit.
However, most of the experts forecast two interest rates hikes this year because of the recent upbeat speech of the BOE Governor Mr. Carney. He claimed that the wage growth is increasing and the focus of the central bank policy is returning to fight above-target inflation.
So, for example, Fabrice Montagne, head UK economist at Barclays said that they consider upbeat talks this Thursday because of positive data of the UK economy, however, they see the next hike in November 2018.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the hike in May or August, but they do not expect any comments from the BOE now.
Citi expects a hike in August 2018. They predict new forecasts with stronger growth and higher inflation rates, however, the Bank more likely will be careful because of the Brexit deal.
The EY ITEM Club forecasts two hikes this year: from 0.5% to 0.75% in May and from 0.75% to 1% in November.
Making a conclusion, we can say that the BOE is more likely will not change the interest rates this time, but experts predict soon hikes later this year. However, the situation will depend on a deal between the UK and the EU, that creates a volatility of the pound and affects the UK economic growth.
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