The performance of the British pound against other majors has grabbed a lot of attention during the last couple of weeks. The British pound was rising due to underlying fundamentals. However, according to the major analysts, the currency will remain under pressure in the longer term. What are the forecasts for the British pound and what factors will drive it?
Fundamental picture
Fundamentally speaking, the British pound is moving on the bets of a sooner-than-expected rate hike. On Sunday, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that the regulator was ready to raise the interest rate. The main reason he mentioned was linked to the soaring gas and electricity prices that create inflationary pressures in the British economy. That is, the UK may experience a spike in inflation that will last for a prolonged period. The markets quickly reacted to his comments, pricing in at least four rate hikes in the next year.
This week, traders await the British Inflation Rate on Wednesday at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3). According to analysts’ consensus, we will see 3.2% y/y once again. However, if it continues to move higher above the BOE’s target, a rate increase in November would be highly possible. This scenario will push the GBP higher.
On the other hand, traders of GBP/USD should pay particular attention to the US dollar as the American currency has risen Monday following the ongoing recovery in the US 10-year Treasury yields.
Given the fact that the Fed is on its way to finally begin tapering, the British pound may become weaker than the US dollar in the long term.
Technical picture
The British pound surged against the USD on Tuesday. GBP/USD tested the levels near the 200-day MA at 1.3840, above the upper border of the descending trading channel. The break above this border and the 200-day SMA will trigger a further surge to 1.39. However, if the GBP continues trading within the channel, it will move towards the lower border. In that case, the first support will lie at 1.3710, the next one - at 1.3670.
On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
The US Dollar has been remarkably sluggish for the past few weeks despite being within a distinct Demand zone. My expectation of a springing rebound off the demand zone has not exactly played out yet, however, the zone remains unbroken.
As I earlier indicated in my article this week, I am expecting an upward push from the Dollar as a reaction from the Demand zone I have marked out. The PPI release earlier moved prices a bit but lacked sufficient momentum to cause a significant break of structure - and thus, no change of trend.
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?