TRUMP, COVID, MARKET: observations

So Donald Trump got COVID-19. And he is 74. And he is running for 2nd presidency. And he is losing. What does that mean?

1. We are humans, and once a disease enters your body – especially if it’s an unknown virus like COVID-19 – you don’t know how your body will fight it and what the outcome will be. It may get over by Monday, or it may become really bad. So let’s be humans first and wish Donald Trump and his wife the soonest recovery.
2. More uncertainty. No one knows what will happen, and everyone in the market thinks the same. While the US President contracted the virus, the market contracted another portion of fear. Both the stock market and the currencies. Hence, be ready for some unforeseen and even inadequte movements by your favorite assets. Meaning, beyond expected drops in stocks and the rise of US on safe-haven flight among investors.  
3. Yet more uncertainty. Currently, the course of presidential debates in the US is far from being “healthy”. The question is not as much in how Donald Trump and Joe Biden address each other as how agreeable they will be – especially Donald Trump – with the process, the results and the aftermath of the election. Whatever his moods and intentions have been until now, with COVID-19 the level of “agreeableness” of Donal Trump may go lower than ever.
4. Even more uncertainty. This time, in the geopolitical arena. Observers are right to point out that somehow Boris Johnson became more anti-China after having COVID-19. The same, and worse, may happen to Donald Trump. Especially if you remember that he called the virus “Chinese plague” during the debate in Cleveland.

So brace yourselves. Winter is coming.

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Gaspar Markosyan

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