2019-11-11 • Updated
The US dollar continued its decline during the past week. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that tax reform will unlikely happen by August. This statement has definitely depraved the American currency from its important bullish driver. At the same time, Mnuchin rejected the idea that Donald Trump was trying to talk down the strength of the US dollar. Still, the US doesn’t have substantial drivers at this point.
In the coming days, we’ll hear from the Fed’s member Kashkari on Monday. CB consumer confidence is due on Tuesday, while core durable goods orders and unemployment claims are awaited on Thursday. On Friday America will release the first estimate of Q1 GDP. One probably shouldn’t expect strong growth figures after the disappointing data on retail sales and consumer prices in March. In addition, Donald Trump said that the Congress will once again vote on repealing Obamacare, although no exact information about the vote is available. US lawmakers will also have until Friday to reach a compromise on new legislation to keep the government funded.
The US dollar index descended to 99.30 after recoiling down from the resistance line around 101.40 in the previous week. After the initial decline, the currency managed to apply the brake and settle above this level. There’s a scope for more downside, but the greenback should find support at 99,00 (200-day MA) and 98.40 (support of the wedge). On the upside, the obstacles lie at 100.65 (50-day MA) and 101.00 (100-day MA). The moving averages are horizontal, so it seems that the pair doesn’t have momentum to leave the wedge yet.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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