The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
US dollar: outlook for April 24-28
2019-11-11 • Updated
The US dollar continued its decline during the past week. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that tax reform will unlikely happen by August. This statement has definitely depraved the American currency from its important bullish driver. At the same time, Mnuchin rejected the idea that Donald Trump was trying to talk down the strength of the US dollar. Still, the US doesn’t have substantial drivers at this point.
In the coming days, we’ll hear from the Fed’s member Kashkari on Monday. CB consumer confidence is due on Tuesday, while core durable goods orders and unemployment claims are awaited on Thursday. On Friday America will release the first estimate of Q1 GDP. One probably shouldn’t expect strong growth figures after the disappointing data on retail sales and consumer prices in March. In addition, Donald Trump said that the Congress will once again vote on repealing Obamacare, although no exact information about the vote is available. US lawmakers will also have until Friday to reach a compromise on new legislation to keep the government funded.
The US dollar index descended to 99.30 after recoiling down from the resistance line around 101.40 in the previous week. After the initial decline, the currency managed to apply the brake and settle above this level. There’s a scope for more downside, but the greenback should find support at 99,00 (200-day MA) and 98.40 (support of the wedge). On the upside, the obstacles lie at 100.65 (50-day MA) and 101.00 (100-day MA). The moving averages are horizontal, so it seems that the pair doesn’t have momentum to leave the wedge yet.
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.