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The United States will publish non-farm payrolls (NFP), also known as non-farm employment change on at 14:30 MT time on November 1. As usual, the indicator will be released together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. What these indicators are about? Non-farm payrolls represent the change in the number of employed people during the previous month (without farmers). Traders pay attention to the release, as the USD gets volatile right after it. The unemployment rate shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed but looking for a job. Finally, the indicator of average hourly earnings shows the change in the price businesses pays for labor. According to the forecasts, the number of payrolls will advance by 90 thousand, while the unemployment rate will reach 3.6%. Analysts' projections are poor this time due to the strike of the GM workers and US-China trade uncertainties. At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3%.
• If the actual figures of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
• If the actual figures of NFP and average hourly earnings are lower, and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the USD will fall.
During the daily press briefing of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, it was announced that Mexico will receive 1.4 million doses of the vaccine by the end of January. Is that optimistic enough for the peso?
The US unemployment claims are announced on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
The Canadian monthly GDP is announced on Wednesday at 15:30 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
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