Last week, there were sharp swings in USDJPY, a decline in oil prices, and a surge in Tesla stock. What's next?
Additional volatility for the USD is expected!
The United States will publish non-farm payrolls (NFP), also known as non-farm employment change on at 14:30 MT time on November 1. As usual, the indicator will be released together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. What these indicators are about? Non-farm payrolls represent the change in the number of employed people during the previous month (without farmers). Traders pay attention to the release, as the USD gets volatile right after it. The unemployment rate shows the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed but looking for a job. Finally, the indicator of average hourly earnings shows the change in the price businesses pays for labor. According to the forecasts, the number of payrolls will advance by 90 thousand, while the unemployment rate will reach 3.6%. Analysts' projections are poor this time due to the strike of the GM workers and US-China trade uncertainties. At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3%.
• If the actual figures of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
• If the actual figures of NFP and average hourly earnings are lower, and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the USD will fall.
Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Last week was super intense! Geopolitical turbulence made the Russian ruble the most volatile currency. Gold rose and fell by more than 8000 points each time.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on May 27 at 15:30 GMT+3.
The United States will publish the Preliminary GDP on Thursday, May 26, at 15:30 GMT+3.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish a monetary policy report and make an update on the interest rate on May 25, at 05:00 GMT+3.