Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Dovish Fed pressed down USD
- The Fed pledged to keep near-zero rates at least through 2023. Besides, the bank left asset purchases unchanged at $120 billion a month. The dovish message pressed down the US dollar. As a result, EUR/USD and GBP/USD surged.
- The decision was made despite inflation worries in financial markets. The Fed raised forecasts for economic growth and the labor market: GDP from 4.2% to 6.5% and unemployment to 4.5% this year.
- Matthews Asia said Fed’s actions are “very bullish for risky assets”. S&P 500 hit a record high on Wednesday and Dow Jones reached the all-time high of 33,000.
- The Australian dollar surged to the two-week high after the better-than-expected labor data.
EUR/USD had a huge swing up after the Fed report but failed to cross the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1990. If it manages to do so, the way up to the 50.00% Fibo level of 1.2040 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the intraday low of 1.1955 will drive the pair down to the 50-period moving average of 1.1930.
GBP/USD has broken through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3950. So, the way up to 1.4000 is open! However, it shouldn’t cross this resistance on the first try as it lies at the 50% Fibo level. Support levels are 1.3950 and 1.3885.
USD/CAD has broken through the psychological level of 1.2400, the level unseen since January 2018. Thus, the way down to the next round number of 1.2300 is open now. However, the RSI indicator has almost crossed the 30.0 level, an indication the pair is oversold. Thus, the reverse up may happen soon. Resistance levels are at the recent highs of 1.2735 and 1.2875.
AUD/USD has approached the 61.8% Fibo level at 0.7840. If it breaks it, it may jump to the 78.6% FIbo level of 0.7910. Support levels are 0.7785 and at the 50-day moving average of 0.7730.
Follow the Bank of England’s meeting at 14:00 MT and keep an eye on the GBP!
Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
The volatility that the markets experienced last week promises the second tidal wave! What should your favorite assets anticipate during the first week of February?
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.