The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
EUR and weak data from Germany
Germany will release Ifo Business Climate Index on Friday at 11:00 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD
You don’t have to be a fortune teller to say that German business will be hit hard by the coronavirus-related lockdown. In March, the index fell to 87.7 points from 96 in February, its biggest drop since 1991. This was the preliminary estimate: the final number turned out to be even grimmer: 86.1.It’s time to remember that Germany is the key economy of the euro area. When it falters, a shadow falls on the entire region and hence on the EUR. Such pairs as EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY will be especially sensitive to the news right after the release. As for the EUR/USD, it will move actively later that day when durable goods orders come out in America. The economy which shows less negative results will see its currency go up.
If German Ifo Business climate index is greater than the forecast, the EUR will rise. If the indicator disappoints, the EUR will fall.
Check the economic calendar
The USD continues dipping, while the GBP is rising on hopes for the Brexit deal done today.
US stocks and oil slipped as Donald Trump threatened not to sign a long-awaited stimulus bill into law. The market sentiment had been already fragile, and Trump’s comments worsened it even more.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.