The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
EUR and weak data from Germany
Germany will release Ifo Business Climate Index on Friday at 11:00 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD
You don’t have to be a fortune teller to say that German business will be hit hard by the coronavirus-related lockdown. In March, the index fell to 87.7 points from 96 in February, its biggest drop since 1991. This was the preliminary estimate: the final number turned out to be even grimmer: 86.1.It’s time to remember that Germany is the key economy of the euro area. When it falters, a shadow falls on the entire region and hence on the EUR. Such pairs as EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY will be especially sensitive to the news right after the release. As for the EUR/USD, it will move actively later that day when durable goods orders come out in America. The economy which shows less negative results will see its currency go up.
If German Ifo Business climate index is greater than the forecast, the EUR will rise. If the indicator disappoints, the EUR will fall.
Check the economic calendar
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.
Stock significantly surged: S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 6-week highs. The market sentiment may deteriorate today as Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine trails have been stopped because of the unexplained illness.
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EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI will come out on Friday at 11:00 MT time!