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Currently, there are three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. The final presidential debate is over. Comparing it with the previous debate, this one was considerably more civilized and informative. That was mostly due to the new Trump’s calm and reasonable approach. It may help him to get some more votes.
As for stimulus talks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed some optimism, but Republicans are still skeptical of making an agreement until after the election.
US unemployment claims have shown improvement in the labor market. 787 000 people filed for jobless benefits, while 860 000 were expected. However, the CB leading index rose less than analysts foresaw: 0.7% vs. the forecast of 0.8%. This index is an approximate measurement of the further direction of the economy as it is a combination of the 10 most significant economic indicators, which were released previously like employment and consumer confidence.
New virus cases are steadily rising, especially in Europe, which also deteriorates the market sentiment. The safe-haven currencies are in great demand now. The USD has outperformed its major peers, except the Japanese yuan. Let’s look at the charts.
EUR/USD is falling. The move below the 50-day moving average of 1.1800 will drive the pair to the next round number of 1.1750. In the opposite scenario, if it bounces off this level, it will jump to the recent high of 1.1870. All eyes on the European PMI at 11:00 MT time, which will impact the euro. If numbers are better than the forecasts, the euro will rise, otherwise – fall.
XAU/USD is trading inside of the ascending channel. If it crosses the 200-period moving average of $1 912, the way to the recent high of $1 925 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the key psychological mark of $1 900 will drive gold to the next support of $1 890.
S&P 500 is modestly trying to rebound its losses. The move above the resistance of 3 455 will drive the stock index to the psychological mark of 3 500. On the contrary, if it drops below yesterday’s low of 3 400, the doors towards 3 330 will be open.
Finally, let’s discuss USD/JPY. The move below the recent low of 104.50 will drive the pair to the key support of 104.00. Otherwise, if it manages to break through yesterday’s high of 104.85, the way to 105.45 will be clear.
The Fed held a much-awaited meeting yesterday. The bank hasn’t made any policy changes. As a result, the USD weakened and EUR/USD rocketed. Jump in to know all the latest news!
What will happen? The US Q2 Gross Domestic Product will be announced at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3) on Thursday, July 29…
Today the Fed will make a policy statement at 21:00 GMT+3. This event will affect all the currency pairs with the USD and thus almost the all Forex market!
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).
What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
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