What to Trade on August 22–26?
How Energy Crisis Affects German PMI August 23, 2022, 10:30 GMT+3 Germany will publish Flash Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday, August 23, at 10:30 MT time (GMT+3)…
Final debate and stimulus talks are in focus
Currently, there are three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. The final presidential debate is over. Comparing it with the previous debate, this one was considerably more civilized and informative. That was mostly due to the new Trump’s calm and reasonable approach. It may help him to get some more votes.
As for stimulus talks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed some optimism, but Republicans are still skeptical of making an agreement until after the election.
US unemployment claims have shown improvement in the labor market. 787 000 people filed for jobless benefits, while 860 000 were expected. However, the CB leading index rose less than analysts foresaw: 0.7% vs. the forecast of 0.8%. This index is an approximate measurement of the further direction of the economy as it is a combination of the 10 most significant economic indicators, which were released previously like employment and consumer confidence.
New virus cases are steadily rising, especially in Europe, which also deteriorates the market sentiment. The safe-haven currencies are in great demand now. The USD has outperformed its major peers, except the Japanese yuan. Let’s look at the charts.
EUR/USD is falling. The move below the 50-day moving average of 1.1800 will drive the pair to the next round number of 1.1750. In the opposite scenario, if it bounces off this level, it will jump to the recent high of 1.1870. All eyes on the European PMI at 11:00 MT time, which will impact the euro. If numbers are better than the forecasts, the euro will rise, otherwise – fall.
XAU/USD is trading inside of the ascending channel. If it crosses the 200-period moving average of $1 912, the way to the recent high of $1 925 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the key psychological mark of $1 900 will drive gold to the next support of $1 890.
S&P 500 is modestly trying to rebound its losses. The move above the resistance of 3 455 will drive the stock index to the psychological mark of 3 500. On the contrary, if it drops below yesterday’s low of 3 400, the doors towards 3 330 will be open.
Finally, let’s discuss USD/JPY. The move below the recent low of 104.50 will drive the pair to the key support of 104.00. Otherwise, if it manages to break through yesterday’s high of 104.85, the way to 105.45 will be clear.
Similar
Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
What will move the market on February 14-18?
Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
Latest news
Assets Won’t Survive This Week
As Europe moves into recession, next week may provide us with some amazing trading opportunities. Here they are!
Post-Fed Releases for USD & CAD Traders
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
FED and BOE Make Another Attempt to Beat Inflation
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
