The market is resilient ahead of the speeches of Fed’s Powell and ECB President Lagarde, but there are still interesting movements.
How far can US GDP fall?
American advance GDP will be released on April 29 at 15:30 MT. It will definitely move USD as it will show the broadest picture of the US economic health amid the COVID-19.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CNH, USD/CAD
It’s obvious that the present US lockdown will lead to a decline of the GDP. What is more intriguing for investors is how bad the indicator will be. Among other economic indicators GDP is the most significant one as it reveals almost every area of the US economy. The largest part of it, nearly 70%, is money that Americans spend domestically. Consumer spending collapsed, that’s why the future GDP fall will be so huge.
How would you rate the coronavirus recession among other US downturns on the Richter scale, which measures the severity of earthquakes? Didier Sornette, who heads the Financial Crisis Observatory, assessed it at a magnitude of 9, when the crisis of 2008 – 8.5. The St. Louis Federal Reserve anticipates the real GDP to drop by 15%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve gave a much better forecast of a 0.3% decline. According to Goldman, GDP will contract by 10%.
If GDP is greater than its forecast, the US dollar will surge, otherwise – drop.
Be cautious! This is a general rule. These days, the US dollar plays a role of a safe-haven currency. That’s why USD won’t fall so deep as the US GDP.
The uncertainty over US fiscal stimulus and Brexit, and also rising new virus cases deteriorated the market mood. That’s why we can expect the further rally of the US dollar and the fall of riskier assets today.
The market sentiment is mixed, but there are still interesting movements on the market.
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