Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the Jackson Hole Symposium resulted in the worst weekly candle in US500 since June.
Inflation index will move USD
What will happen?
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is similar to Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it monthly. The only difference between them is that PCE measures solely goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item, which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. According to many analysts, the Federal Reserve prefers this indicator to estimate inflation.
How will it affect the dollar?
Because of the 7.5% consumer inflation in the US, the USD is fluctuating, and it is affected by many factors. So, the market is waiting for the beginning of rough changes and hawkish steps by the Federal Reserve. Will the actual release amaze traders this time?
On January 28, 2022, the last release got completely in line with the expectation of 0.5%, the same as the previous releases; however, the USD hit the low and kept fluctuating this day, even though it used to trade at high levels.
How to trade on the Core PCE release?
Due to the importance of the CPE index, the impact on gold and USD pairs can occur. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but high numbers increase the chance for rate hikes so that the metal may fall against the USD.
- If actual numbers beat expectations – the USD will go up, and gold (XAU/USD) will fall.
- On the contrary, gold will rise.
Check the economic calendar
Instruments to trade: XAU/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF.
Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
The United States will publish the Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate, also known as US CPI and Core CPI, on August 10 at 15:30 GMT+3.
As Europe moves into recession, next week may provide us with some amazing trading opportunities. Here they are!
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.