USD/TRY: what next?

USD/TRY: what next?

As Turkey made a purchase of the Russian missile system earlier this year, the US has threatened to sanction it, seeing that act as something incompatible with NATO membership. In response, on Monday the Turkish president Mr. Erdogan made it clear that the NATO military bases in Turkey may be closed if the US proceeds with the sanctions. Consequently, during the last three days, the Turkish lira has been depreciating against the US dollar in view of the unfolding complications around Turkey.

On the H4, USD/TRY rose to the level of 5.90, which is an inch away from the October high of 5.92. Although the price made a stop at this resistance, there has not been any other news after Mr. Erdogan’s comment to soften the pressure on the Turkish lira. In fact, there has not been any news at all that could shift the market away from a grim economic outlook for Turkish lira at this moment. For this reason, even if it seems unlikely to see USD/TRY climbing further up right now, there is nothing to convince the market otherwise.

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The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time. 

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