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As Turkey made a purchase of the Russian missile system earlier this year, the US has threatened to sanction it, seeing that act as something incompatible with NATO membership. In response, on Monday the Turkish president Mr. Erdogan made it clear that the NATO military bases in Turkey may be closed if the US proceeds with the sanctions. Consequently, during the last three days, the Turkish lira has been depreciating against the US dollar in view of the unfolding complications around Turkey.
On the H4, USD/TRY rose to the level of 5.90, which is an inch away from the October high of 5.92. Although the price made a stop at this resistance, there has not been any other news after Mr. Erdogan’s comment to soften the pressure on the Turkish lira. In fact, there has not been any news at all that could shift the market away from a grim economic outlook for Turkish lira at this moment. For this reason, even if it seems unlikely to see USD/TRY climbing further up right now, there is nothing to convince the market otherwise.
Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
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Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.
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