Happy Friday, traders! Are you ready to trade at the end of the week? Here’s what you need to know before you start:
USD/TRY: what next?
As Turkey made a purchase of the Russian missile system earlier this year, the US has threatened to sanction it, seeing that act as something incompatible with NATO membership. In response, on Monday the Turkish president Mr. Erdogan made it clear that the NATO military bases in Turkey may be closed if the US proceeds with the sanctions. Consequently, during the last three days, the Turkish lira has been depreciating against the US dollar in view of the unfolding complications around Turkey.
On the H4, USD/TRY rose to the level of 5.90, which is an inch away from the October high of 5.92. Although the price made a stop at this resistance, there has not been any other news after Mr. Erdogan’s comment to soften the pressure on the Turkish lira. In fact, there has not been any news at all that could shift the market away from a grim economic outlook for Turkish lira at this moment. For this reason, even if it seems unlikely to see USD/TRY climbing further up right now, there is nothing to convince the market otherwise.
The first week of November promises to be eventful, as we have the Fed meeting, the BOE update, and the NFP release. Read more details here.
Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.