ZAR and Minister Mboweni budget speech

Key indicators

Performance in 2020: +9.5%

Last day range: 15.1743-15.2590

52-week range: 13.8100-15.4974

An intriguing speech

Today, the South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni is delivering the budget speech (14:00 MT). And that’s a big intrigue for the country and for the ZAR consequently. Currently, South African economy is not in the best shape: state debt is big and keeps increasing, domestic economic growth is sluggish, state-owned enterprises are mostly troubled, the unemployment rate is high. The international prestige of the country suffers a lot because of this venomous bouquet: Moody’s rating gives the lowest mark to South African investment climate. This, in turn, pushes away international capital inflows, which otherwise would be able to give a spark to the country’s economy and revive it at least to some extent.

Gate to 5-year highs

Under these circumstances, the ZAR has been dropping against the US dollar almost in a straight decline since the beginning of 2020. Compared to where it was on 31 December, it lost almost 10% of its value against the USD. Now, the USD/ZAR is testing the resistance of 15.3000. This level is not only the mid-term resistance established by October high – it is a gate to the lower border of the range where USD/ZAR has been peaking ever since 2015. Therefore, the speech of the South African Finance Minister today will be as timely as tactical, from the currency performance point of view. Even strategic. Especially, if it is indeed going to be full of good news, as the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa noted. Hence, all eyes will be on Mr. Mboweni today – make your bets.