Analysts at Citi predict Brent crude oil prices could increase in the short term due to higher demand possibly outpacing supply in the fourth quarter of 2024. OPEC and its allies have delayed cutting output, and supply disruptions in Libya are contributing to a predicted market deficit of 0.4 million barrels per day. This could push Brent prices into the $70 to $75 per barrel range, with additional support from a possible rise in demand from China. However, the analysts expect prices to fall to $60 per barrel in 2025 due to an anticipated supply surplus. Recent US crude price gains were helped by a larger-than-expected drop in oil inventories, although concerns remain over weakening fuel demand.
XBRUSD – H4 Timeframe
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The 4-hour timeframe of Brent crude price action indicates an on-going consolidation within the rising channel, after the rejection from the daily timeframe pivot as highlighted by the red horizontal lines. My expectation here is a retest of the trendline support around the pivot zone, to push price towards the 200-period moving average.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 76.70
Invalidation: 71.00
XTIUSD – H4 Timeframe
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The current bullish momentum on XTIUSD looks like it still has some ground to cover. Although the overall trend appears to be bearish, the bullish retracement may be heading for the confluence of the 200-period Moving average, and the rally-base-drop supply zone as its trigger for the continuation of the bearish trend. In summary, this means the bullish momentum on XTIUSD can be expected to continue for a while.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 73.05
Invalidation: 68.00
CONCLUSION
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