AUD/USD: near-term and long-term forecasts from banks

AUD/USD: near-term and long-term forecasts from banks

2019-11-11 • Updated

AUD/USD is trading sideways this week within the range between 0.7470 and the tail of 100-day MA at 0.7515. Tomorrow Aussie-watchers will be focused on Australia’s labor market data which can show slow earnings growth, and weaken AUD in the short-term. Also, there will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review coming out at 4:30 am MT time.

Citi

Citi analysts are bearish on AUD/USD in the short-term. They expect a drop towards 0.72 – 0.73 area, once the pair breaks 0.7409

NAB

NAB analysts suggest 4 reasons of the recent AUD weakness:

1. The RBA’s statement delivered on 4 April acknowledged the weakening in Australia’s labor market and removed any risk of higher interest rates over the next year.

2. Geopolitical tensions were pressuring the Aussie since last Friday (after the launch of US missiles on Syrian airbase). There is a risk of further escalation of the conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East. It will be a significant headwind for AUD in the near-term.

3. Continued economic slack of China’s economy (there were signs of softening in China data). Australian commodity export prices are likely to come under pressure over this and next year.

4. The breach of significant supports in the 0.7580-85 area opened the way towards lower levels at 0.7480/0.7470.  

NAB’s tips

NAB analysts don't recommend getting too bearish despite the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve listed above. They suggest targeting AUD/USD at 0.75 for end-Q2, 0.73 for end Q3 and 0.70 for Q4.

 

Similar

What will move the market on September 6-10?
What will move the market on September 6-10?

Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.

USD Declines on Powell Remarks
USD Declines on Powell Remarks

After multiple hawkish remarks over the past few days from non-voters members, the Federal Reserve chairman Powell surprised the markets with some dovish remarks…

S&P in the Сrosshairs
S&P in the Сrosshairs

Institutional investors speak about further growth in the stock market. In the exact market that has doubled since COVID-19 and doesn’t plan to stop. Is it possible?

Latest news

US Stock Market Recovers
US Stock Market Recovers

What happened? US stocks ended sharply higher on Thursday, May 27, after a 7-week losing streak…

What to trade on May 30-June 3
What to trade on May 30-June 3

Next week, we expect the BOC rate statement, the OPEC+ meeting, and the Nonfarm payrolls release. Let's look at the opportunities in detail! 

Deposit with your local payment systems

Be on top of your game

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera