AUD/USD: near-term and long-term forecasts from banks

AUD/USD: near-term and long-term forecasts from banks

2019-11-11 • Updated

AUD/USD is trading sideways this week within the range between 0.7470 and the tail of 100-day MA at 0.7515. Tomorrow Aussie-watchers will be focused on Australia’s labor market data which can show slow earnings growth, and weaken AUD in the short-term. Also, there will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review coming out at 4:30 am MT time.

Citi

Citi analysts are bearish on AUD/USD in the short-term. They expect a drop towards 0.72 – 0.73 area, once the pair breaks 0.7409

NAB

NAB analysts suggest 4 reasons of the recent AUD weakness:

1. The RBA’s statement delivered on 4 April acknowledged the weakening in Australia’s labor market and removed any risk of higher interest rates over the next year.

2. Geopolitical tensions were pressuring the Aussie since last Friday (after the launch of US missiles on Syrian airbase). There is a risk of further escalation of the conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East. It will be a significant headwind for AUD in the near-term.

3. Continued economic slack of China’s economy (there were signs of softening in China data). Australian commodity export prices are likely to come under pressure over this and next year.

4. The breach of significant supports in the 0.7580-85 area opened the way towards lower levels at 0.7480/0.7470.  

NAB’s tips

NAB analysts don't recommend getting too bearish despite the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve listed above. They suggest targeting AUD/USD at 0.75 for end-Q2, 0.73 for end Q3 and 0.70 for Q4.

 

Similar

What Can Drive Oil below $90 a Barrel?
What Can Drive Oil below $90 a Barrel?

The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.

What will move the market on September 6-10?
What will move the market on September 6-10?

Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.

Latest news

Best Instruments to Trade This Week
Best Instruments to Trade This Week

This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.

European Currencies Ahead of the Banks' Statements
European Currencies Ahead of the Banks' Statements

On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.

Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?
Will the FOMC Surprise the Markets?

The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?

Deposit with your local payment systems

Feel the Team Spirit

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera