GBP/USD: outlook for June 12-16

The pound slumped to 1.2635 after the Conservative lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the UK into political turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations. Before the election, the UK was set to start negotiations in June and leave the block by the end of March 2019, now this Brexit process will likely be delayed.

Next week will be really eventful for the GBP/USD. On Tuesday, traders will closely watch Britain’s inflation data coming at 11:30 am MT time. Further, we will receive average earning index, claimant count and an unemployment rate for the UK on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Bank of England is set to deliver its official rate. While taking the decision on its interest rate the BoE’s policymakers will likely take into consideration the data released earlier in the week. No matter what headlines we get on the inflation and labor market figures, the BoE will likely remain its monetary policy settings unchanged making reference to the heightened uncertainty over the Brexit process. The key event in the US is Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for June 14. The probability of the rate hike reached 95.8%. The minutes from May 2-3 meeting showed that Fed’s policymakers are ready to increase rates if they receive enough evidence confirming the economic growth and inflation pick-up. In a case of the rate hike, the USD will strengthen against the currently vulnerable GBP.

Technically, the pair managed to rebound from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1985-1.3046 recent up-swing. Stochastic shows that GBP may still go lower in the short-term, a successful break of the 1.2700 handle may send quotes towards 200-day SMA support near 1.2575 or lower towards 50% Fibo level traced from this year low (1.1985).

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Anastasia Mileshkina