Global Reversal in USDJPY

Global Reversal in USDJPY

2022-12-15 • Updated

What happened?

Historically investors treated the Japanese Yen as a safe haven in times of world crisis. However, three weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, the JPY has plunged to a five-year low against the US dollar.

Why is the yen falling?

Falling interest rates and high commodities prices are the main characteristics that usually push the Yen up against other currencies in times of global market upheaval. Yen’s safety was caused by the Japanese current account surplus.

Unfortunately for the yen, these factors work in reverse as well. Nowadays, global interest rates are increasing, energy and commodities prices are skyrocketing, and Japan's current account surplus is melting.

Crude oil, which is trading around $115, meets most of Japan's primary energy needs. Japan is also one of the world's biggest importers of liquefied natural gas, which accounts for around a quarter of its energy balance. These factors mark a sharp deterioration in the country's terms of trade, and the yen-boosting current account surplus that Japan has run for decades may soon become a deficit.

If we consider that the Federal Reserve might increase the key rate by 50 basis points in May, plus another 25 points at each of the next five meetings in 2022, then we can conclude that USDJPY has more space to run higher. Moreover, energy prices may remain high for a long time, pressing the yen even more.

Technical analysis

USDJPY, monthly chart

USDJPYMonthly.png

The monthly chart confirms our suggestions. As we can notice, the price has formed a global bullish wedge. Moreover, the breakout has already happened. That’s why there is no doubt USDJPY is now absolutely bullish in the long term.

USDJPY, Weekly chart

usdjpy.jpeg

Looking at the lower timeframe, we can suggest that USDJPY might reverse at 124 and return to 115 for a global wedge’s retest.

As a result, there are three trading options:

  1. Follow the trend and buy with the target at 124.
  2. Sell the pair at 124.
  3. Open a buy trade at the wedge’s retest.

LOG IN 

Similar

XAUUSD: Markets Slow Down Ahead of NFP
XAUUSD: Markets Slow Down Ahead of NFP

Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...

CAD: Signs of Growth May Persist
CAD: Signs of Growth May Persist

Canadian retail sales showed a slight rebound in February, rising by 0.1% after a 0.3% drop in January. However, this failed to fully offset the steeper decline earlier in the year, suggesting a weakening momentum in consumer spending. The increase in February was driven by gains in sectors such as sporting goods, hobby retailers, and building materials. Despite the...

NZD: Weak GDP Contracts NZD Growth
NZD: Weak GDP Contracts NZD Growth

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under pressure due to concerns about the country's economic growth, exacerbated by bearish technical indicators and the US Dollar's strength. Recent data showing negative growth in New Zealand, with GDP contracting by 0.1% in Q4 2024, suggests a recession. Despite this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has not ...

Latest news

CAD: Markets Await GDP Release
CAD: Markets Await GDP Release

During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera