2022-04-14 • Updated
On the daily chart, we see gold behaving in a very strange way. In December-January, when the US-China trade agreement was announced to be sealed and was finally signed, it was rising (what?). When the virus struck and went “wild” in January-February, gold barely moved a finger (again, what?). That’s not an exaggeration because the famous local high of $1,700 seems to be quite naturally on the way of the upward-marching metal since November (that I see). Therefore, the virus doesn’t seem to introduce any additional velocity for the gold price to move up quicker. More to that, it dropped to $1,450 per ounce. In defiance of all the “laws of safe havens”, it went down. But now, it is back up. The question is, to where?
The trend marked on the chart clearly serves as “convertible” support: currently, the price is testing it as resistance. But even if it does cross it upwards, what will that mean? It will merely get into the trajectory of indifference which has been there since winter. But as it serves as resistance now, it still needs to be passed, and given the odd way gold behaves, it isn’t very likely to happen soon. Rather, gold seems to go into sideways mood along with the current level of $1,626, possibly even going down again. In the end, its’ leap from the ranges of $1,450 to $1,626 was really straight and steep, it will probably retrace now.
How to interpret gold’s behavior? Unlike going fundamental with stocks, I suggest going technical with gold. The reality is that there are apparently so many factors overlapping and overwhelming the gold market that its behavior becomes almost completely sporadic and unpredictable, like a permanent shock. Probably, using oscillators and trend markers will be more helpful as fundamentals seem to affect it like hollow-point bullets: enters at one trajectory, exits somewhere else. Anyways, not to worry, $1,700 per ounce will be there eventually, and it is not too far away.
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