The Federal Reserve kept the current policy as widely expected. However, the surprise came from the Dot Plot. In the March meeting, only 7 members saw a rate hike by the end of 2023, while in yesterday’s meeting this number has increased to 13. Moreover, the number of members who see a rate hike in 2022 has increased from 4 to 7. What this means is that the Fed now believes that rate hikes are coming sooner than before and might be faster, which also means that the QE tapering could be around the corner. With that being said, markets started to price in QE tapering right after the decision. Such a move is not only in the short term, but it can go for weeks and months. From now on, we would be looking to buy the US Dollar on dips as any downside move is likely to be limited above 89.0 – 90.0 area.
The Netflix stock (NFLX), with a market cap of $145.17B and a whooping 10 000+% rise since its inception 16 years ago, experienced some turbulence for a short period last year while trading around the $250 share price. However, the NFLX stock quickly recovered and rose to over $300 towards the end of the previous quarter of 2022.
The Crypto market usually also has a rough time in September. Bitcoin lost 12.7% in September 2021, 17.4% in 2020, 17.5% in 2018, 21.4% in 2017 and 45.4% in 2015. The main cryptocurrency increased by 13.3% and 3.95% in 2016 and 2019, respectively.
This week, there are a few high-probability trade ideas I'd like to recommend to you. Trading these setups, be sure to implement a proper risk management approach.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?