The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
New Beginning for the Canadian Dollar
2022-06-03 • Updated
Recently, the Bank of Canada hiked the interest rates by 50 basis points. It is now 1.5%, and it’s only the beginning. The policy rate may directly go to the top, or even above, what the Bank of Canada considers its “neutral range,” estimated at 2-3%. These measures can push the CAD higher against other currencies.
Moreover, Canada’s economy recorded a surge in trade with the rest of the world in March, as rising prices for commodities coupled with strong domestic demand and a smoother global supply chain drove imports and exports.
Imports jumped 7.7 per cent in March to $61.1 billion (US$47.7 billion), while exports were up 6.3 per cent to $63.6 billion, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday. The nation’s surplus narrowed to $2.5 billion, from a revised $3.1 billion in February.
We’ll take a look at two pairs. First is USDCAD. The pair is near the support trendline, which prevents the USD from falling for more than a year. We can expect another touch of the line, but the breakout is not a must-have right now. The bounce from the trendline will probably result in the consolidation for another month or two. If the price breaks through the support, the downtrend for the USD will continue.
USDCAD daily chart
Resistance: 1.2370, 1.2800, 1.2890
Support: 1.2450, 1.2300
Another chart worth looking at is CADJPY. We can clearly see a fractal that happened in 2012; the movement seems similar, and we can expect the pair to move higher. CADJPY may reach 106.50 before the end of the uptrend. That aligns with our prospects for the Canadian dollar.
CADJPY Weekly chart
Resistance: 101.20, 104.00, 106.50
Support: 97.80, 93.20, 91.50
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The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
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